• DiscountingOuts

This is the practice of reducing the value of your outs based on the chance that some of your expected good cards may make an even better hand for an opponent.

For a classic example, you hold:

Against a board of:

You have an two-way straight draw; you make a straight on any Queen or Seven. That gives you a starting point of eight outs. However, let's suppose that the betting action leads you to believe that someone is out there with a flush draw. (Let's say there was a bet and a raise on the flop, and somebody called two cold -- that call is not likely without a strong draw like a four-flush.)

If you assume there's a flush draw lurking, then two of "your" cards -- the Queen of hearts and the Eight of hearts -- make your straight only to give an opponent the flush with which to hammer you mercilessly. This leads you to reduce your outs by two, making your draw a six-outer.

Advanced considerations

If you're being picky, you should not discount your outs by two if you're not 100% sure that the flush draw is out there. If you think there's a 50% chance that someone out there has a flush draw, you should only reduce your outs by 50% of the two scary cards, so you'd reduce your outs by one. However, you must also consider the betting impact if one of those scary cards should come -- if you make the straight and the flush draw hits too, your position is compromised. Will you be able to bet that river? If not, you can't get value for your straight. If you bet, you are risking getting raised by the flush, which you will have to call down, costing you two bets on the river, cursing you with some significant reverse-implied odds. When you total up how nasty it is to get one of those cursed cards, you're usually better off just counting it as a six-outer to start with!