(NOTE: The following discussion pertains to Limit Hold'em. In No-Limit, the implied odds are very large relative to the blinds, and posting quite late can be appropriate. -- MogobuTheFool)
"Posting In" SIMS
Grinder ran a large group of Simulations looking at the effects of posting in. His findings:
IT SUCKS!! I created a profile in TTH6.0, where the player would play any 2 cards but would play "by the book" after the flop. It's not REALLY posting in, but it's close.
Pos BB/100 $$ 1 yr** Button* +0.65 CO -3.11 2 off -8.72 $163 3 off -12.72 $280 4 off -16.19 $381 5 off -19.09 $466 6 off -19.26 7 off -23.73
*You can never post in on the Button but is used to compare.
$$ 1 yr** = This is what you would lose over the course of 1 year posting in twice a day in that position compared to posting in in the Cut Off. You get the idea - posting anywhere but the CO is way way -EV.
What does this mean?
Of course, that loss is just from playing the seat when posting. In return, you get to play several seats profitably -- albeit from "worse" positions.
MogobuTheFool ran a large series of simulations examing various starting plays, as described in SimulationsByMogobu. The following table shows the value of each starting hand when played the "best way" after posting from 4 OTB (Off The Button). In other words, if the best way to play a hand is to raise, then the value is based on raising. Note that sometimes, playing the "best way" is a loser. For example, playing KTo is a loser when played from 4 OTB: limping in, it loses .11 BB if you Limp/Fold (Limp, but fold to a subsequent raise), and loses .071 BB if you Limp/Call (limp, but call a subsequent raise). On the other hand, if you choose a Raise In/Call strategy (meaning fold to a raise, but raise if nobody else has yet raised, and call subsequent raises), then it only loses .051 BB. Clearly, the best play is to raise. This will fold some of the following field, and high cards like KTo play best against smaller fields. They don't play so well that you would want to do this, but losing .051 BB by raising in is still the best move. In fact, this is what you should do if you post in and get KTo. (If it has already been raised, you should just call -- you will lose .155 BB, which is less than the .5 BB loss of throwing away the blind you've posted.)
Similarly, the best strategy is used for each starting hand. Something like 43, both suited and offsuit, will fold if it is already raised. But if the bet has gone around and was raised afterwards, 43s will call the subsequent raise (playing a Limp/Call strategy), and 43o will fold (playing a Limp/Fold strategy). That's just how the math worked out.
Run this way, we find that posting in from 4 OTB costs an average of -.14 BB. (The full table, with value per starting hand, is including at the bottom of this page.)
Against the cost of posting from 4 OTB we must weigh the value of playing the seats 5, 6, and 7 OTB. You can look at your Poker Tracker positional stats to see how many BB you win from those seats (you are winning, right?) In my case, I win more than .14 BB playing the three seats, but it's not a big margin. Posting from 4 OTB is therefore profitable if I can play the next three deals for free. Of course, if the table is not full, then I don't buy three deals, and the value equation is not met -- I will wait for the big blind.
Along the same lines, posting from 5 OTB will cost slightly more than -.14 BB (the position is a little worse), and you have at most two playable seats to profit from. At 5 OTB, only the best super-genius player can make enough money to warrant posting in. I'd wait for the Big Blind.
Posting from 3 OTB is clearly profitable, as long as there are at least 9 players, giving me three free deals to profit from.
So that's my rule: I post if I can get three free deals.
A weaker player may wish to go conservative and require four free deals to post in. I think any more than that is inappropriate, unless you're not ready to play yet anyway. If you're ready to play, time waiting is time wasted, and gives a tighter impression to the players at the table.
Debate this page
Debate link to the forum: HERE
The raw numbers
Here are the full results, when played the best way per had type, in Big Blinds per hand:
|
Hand |
BB/Hand |
Frequency |
Net |
|
AK Offsuit |
0.4365 |
0.009049774 |
0.003950226 |
|
AQ Offsuit |
0.26625 |
0.009049774 |
0.002409502 |
|
AJ Offsuit |
0.16625 |
0.009049774 |
0.001504525 |
|
AT Offsuit |
0.067 |
0.009049774 |
0.000606335 |
|
A9 Offsuit |
-0.02825 |
0.009049774 |
-0.000255656 |
|
A8 Offsuit |
-0.089 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00080543 |
|
A7 Offsuit |
-0.13625 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001233032 |
|
A6 Offsuit |
-0.1605 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001452489 |
|
A5 Offsuit |
-0.17875 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001617647 |
|
A4 Offsuit |
-0.18475 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001671946 |
|
A3 Offsuit |
-0.198 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001791855 |
|
A2 Offsuit |
-0.2185 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001977376 |
|
KQ Offsuit |
0.135 |
0.009049774 |
0.001221719 |
|
KJ Offsuit |
0.03225 |
0.009049774 |
0.000291855 |
|
KT Offsuit |
-0.0505 |
0.009049774 |
-0.000457014 |
|
K9 Offsuit |
-0.133 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00120362 |
|
K8 Offsuit |
-0.21025 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001902715 |
|
K7 Offsuit |
-0.21625 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001957014 |
|
K6 Offsuit |
-0.219 |
0.009049774 |
-0.0019819 |
|
K5 Offsuit |
-0.25575 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00231448 |
|
K4 Offsuit |
-0.258 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002334842 |
|
K3 Offsuit |
-0.25275 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00228733 |
|
K2 Offsuit |
-0.25 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002262443 |
|
QJ Offsuit |
-0.045 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00040724 |
|
QT Offsuit |
-0.08825 |
0.009049774 |
-0.000798643 |
|
Q9 Offsuit |
-0.182 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001647059 |
|
Q8 Offsuit |
-0.2215 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002004525 |
|
Q7 Offsuit |
-0.2545 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002303167 |
|
Q6 Offsuit |
-0.25425 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002300905 |
|
Q5 Offsuit |
-0.26025 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002355204 |
|
Q4 Offsuit |
-0.273 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002470588 |
|
Q3 Offsuit |
-0.27675 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002504525 |
|
Q2 Offsuit |
-0.2855 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00258371 |
|
JT Offsuit |
-0.128 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001158371 |
|
J9 Offsuit |
-0.21075 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00190724 |
|
J8 Offsuit |
-0.24575 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002223982 |
|
J7 Offsuit |
-0.25975 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002350679 |
|
J6 Offsuit |
-0.274 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002479638 |
|
J5 Offsuit |
-0.29675 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00268552 |
|
J4 Offsuit |
-0.28925 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002617647 |
|
J3 Offsuit |
-0.29475 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002667421 |
|
J2 Offsuit |
-0.29 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002624434 |
|
T9 Offsuit |
-0.157 |
0.009049774 |
-0.001420814 |
|
T8 Offsuit |
-0.24875 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002251131 |
|
T7 Offsuit |
-0.267 |
0.009049774 |
-0.00241629 |
|
T6 Offsuit |
-0.285 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002579186 |
|
T5 Offsuit |
-0.30175 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002730769 |
|
T4 Offsuit |
-0.30375 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002748869 |
|
T3 Offsuit |
-0.3185 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002882353 |
|
T2 Offsuit |
-0.3 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002714932 |
|
98 Offsuit |
-0.2325 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002104072 |
|
97 Offsuit |
-0.26125 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002364253 |
|
96 Offsuit |
-0.277 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002506787 |
|
95 Offsuit |
-0.3085 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002791855 |
|
94 Offsuit |
-0.32175 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002911765 |
|
93 Offsuit |
-0.32175 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002911765 |
|
92 Offsuit |
-0.32325 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002925339 |
|
87 Offsuit |
-0.251 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002271493 |
|
86 Offsuit |
-0.27925 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002527149 |
|
85 Offsuit |
-0.29575 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002676471 |
|
84 Offsuit |
-0.319 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002886878 |
|
83 Offsuit |
-0.3155 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002855204 |
|
82 Offsuit |
-0.31275 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002830317 |
|
76 Offsuit |
-0.2685 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002429864 |
|
75 Offsuit |
-0.2805 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002538462 |
|
74 Offsuit |
-0.2845 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002574661 |
|
73 Offsuit |
-0.30975 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002803167 |
|
72 Offsuit |
-0.31875 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002884615 |
|
65 Offsuit |
-0.286 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002588235 |
|
64 Offsuit |
-0.30775 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002785068 |
|
63 Offsuit |
-0.31975 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002893665 |
|
62 Offsuit |
-0.333 |
0.009049774 |
-0.003013575 |
|
54 Offsuit |
-0.29 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002624434 |
|
53 Offsuit |
-0.3195 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002891403 |
|
52 Offsuit |
-0.31025 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002807692 |
|
43 Offsuit |
-0.30825 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002789593 |
|
42 Offsuit |
-0.323 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002923077 |
|
32 Offsuit |
-0.326 |
0.009049774 |
-0.002950226 |
|
AA Pair |
2.664 |
0.004524887 |
0.012054299 |
|
KK Pair |
1.83075 |
0.004524887 |
0.008283937 |
|
QQ Pair |
1.26225 |
0.004524887 |
0.005711538 |
|
JJ Pair |
0.732 |
0.004524887 |
0.003312217 |
|
TT Pair |
0.4715 |
0.004524887 |
0.002133484 |
|
99 Pair |
0.243 |
0.004524887 |
0.001099548 |
|
88 Pair |
0.122 |
0.004524887 |
0.000552036 |
|
77 Pair |
0.10375 |
0.004524887 |
0.000469457 |
|
66 Pair |
0.0225 |
0.004524887 |
0.00010181 |
|
55 Pair |
-0.0935 |
0.004524887 |
-0.000423077 |
|
44 Pair |
-0.02225 |
0.004524887 |
-0.000100679 |
|
33 Pair |
-0.07525 |
0.004524887 |
-0.000340498 |
|
22 Pair |
-0.0955 |
0.004524887 |
-0.000432127 |
|
AK Suited |
0.66675 |
0.003016591 |
0.002011312 |
|
AQ Suited |
0.495 |
0.003016591 |
0.001493213 |
|
AJ Suited |
0.412 |
0.003016591 |
0.001242836 |
|
AT Suited |
0.17125 |
0.003016591 |
0.000516591 |
|
A9 Suited |
0.097 |
0.003016591 |
0.000292609 |
|
A8 Suited |
0.093 |
0.003016591 |
0.000280543 |
|
A7 Suited |
0.0355 |
0.003016591 |
0.000107089 |
|
A6 Suited |
0.00625 |
0.003016591 |
1.88537E-05 |
|
A5 Suited |
-0.01475 |
0.003016591 |
-4.44947E-05 |
|
A4 Suited |
0.089 |
0.003016591 |
0.000268477 |
|
A3 Suited |
0.12125 |
0.003016591 |
0.000365762 |
|
A2 Suited |
-0.04975 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000150075 |
|
KQ Suited |
0.24925 |
0.003016591 |
0.000751885 |
|
KJ Suited |
0.23075 |
0.003016591 |
0.000696078 |
|
KT Suited |
0.21575 |
0.003016591 |
0.00065083 |
|
K9 Suited |
-0.05925 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000178733 |
|
K8 Suited |
0.03775 |
0.003016591 |
0.000113876 |
|
K7 Suited |
-0.04725 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000142534 |
|
K6 Suited |
-0.07825 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000236048 |
|
K5 Suited |
-0.0605 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000182504 |
|
K4 Suited |
-0.12875 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000388386 |
|
K3 Suited |
-0.10225 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000308446 |
|
K2 Suited |
-0.1435 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000432881 |
|
QJ Suited |
0.0565 |
0.003016591 |
0.000170437 |
|
QT Suited |
0.0695 |
0.003016591 |
0.000209653 |
|
Q9 Suited |
-0.00075 |
0.003016591 |
-2.26244E-06 |
|
Q8 Suited |
-0.0705 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00021267 |
|
Q7 Suited |
-0.09025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000272247 |
|
Q6 Suited |
-0.1305 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000393665 |
|
Q5 Suited |
-0.15725 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000474359 |
|
Q4 Suited |
-0.16475 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000496983 |
|
Q3 Suited |
-0.2155 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000650075 |
|
Q2 Suited |
-0.14825 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00044721 |
|
JT Suited |
-0.04025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000121418 |
|
J9 Suited |
-0.038 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00011463 |
|
J8 Suited |
-0.122 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000368024 |
|
J7 Suited |
-0.1525 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00046003 |
|
J6 Suited |
-0.2175 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000656109 |
|
J5 Suited |
-0.21075 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000635747 |
|
J4 Suited |
-0.17925 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000540724 |
|
J3 Suited |
-0.25625 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000773002 |
|
J2 Suited |
-0.15325 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000462293 |
|
T9 Suited |
-0.01875 |
0.003016591 |
-5.65611E-05 |
|
T8 Suited |
-0.11675 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000352187 |
|
T7 Suited |
-0.1955 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000589744 |
|
T6 Suited |
-0.18275 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000551282 |
|
T5 Suited |
-0.2325 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000701357 |
|
T4 Suited |
-0.17075 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000515083 |
|
T3 Suited |
-0.2065 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000622926 |
|
T2 Suited |
-0.2615 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000788839 |
|
98 Suited |
-0.04375 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000131976 |
|
97 Suited |
-0.11475 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000346154 |
|
96 Suited |
-0.214 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000645551 |
|
95 Suited |
-0.21375 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000644796 |
|
94 Suited |
-0.23125 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000697587 |
|
93 Suited |
-0.2405 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00072549 |
|
92 Suited |
-0.23925 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000721719 |
|
87 Suited |
-0.123 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000371041 |
|
86 Suited |
-0.1655 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000499246 |
|
85 Suited |
-0.13425 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000404977 |
|
84 Suited |
-0.1565 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000472097 |
|
83 Suited |
-0.23925 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000721719 |
|
82 Suited |
-0.22725 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00068552 |
|
76 Suited |
-0.15975 |
0.003016591 |
-0.0004819 |
|
75 Suited |
-0.1585 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00047813 |
|
74 Suited |
-0.24075 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000726244 |
|
73 Suited |
-0.28075 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000846908 |
|
72 Suited |
-0.27025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000815234 |
|
65 Suited |
-0.196 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000591252 |
|
64 Suited |
-0.1295 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000390649 |
|
63 Suited |
-0.2075 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000625943 |
|
62 Suited |
-0.21175 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000638763 |
|
54 Suited |
-0.11025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000332579 |
|
53 Suited |
-0.17025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000513575 |
|
52 Suited |
-0.25025 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000754902 |
|
43 Suited |
-0.2335 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000704374 |
|
42 Suited |
-0.22 |
0.003016591 |
-0.00066365 |
|
32 Suited |
-0.2695 |
0.003016591 |
-0.000812971 |
|
|
TOTAL |
1.000000000 |
-0.141575038 |